Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories.

OBJECTIVES: To assist with planning hospital resources, including critical care (CC) beds, for managing patients with COVID-19. METHODS: An individual simulation was implemented in Microsoft Excel using a discretely integrated condition event simulation. Expected daily cases presented to the emergency department were modeled in terms of transitions to and from ward and CC and to discharge or death. The duration of stay in each location was selected from trajectory-specific distributions. Daily ward and CC bed occupancy and the number of discharges according to care needs were forecast for the period of interest. Face validity was ascertained by local experts and, for the case study, by comparing forecasts with actual data. RESULTS: To illustrate the use of the model, a case study was developed for Guy's and St Thomas' Trust. They provided inputs for January 2020 to early April 2020, and local observed case numbers were fit to provide estimates of emergency department arrivals. A peak demand of 467 ward and 135 CC beds was forecast, with diminishing numbers through July. The model tended to predict higher occupancy in Level 1 than what was eventually observed, but the timing of peaks was quite close, especially for CC, where the model predicted at least 120 beds would be occupied from April 9, 2020, to April 17, 2020, compared with April 7, 2020, to April 19, 2020, in reality. The care needs on discharge varied greatly from day to day. CONCLUSIONS: The DICE simulation of hospital trajectories of patients with COVID-19 provides forecasts of resources needed with only a few local inputs. This should help planners understand their expected resource needs.

Triage protocol for allocation of critical health resources during Covid-19 pandemic and public health emergencies. A narrative review.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE WORK: Triage during the Covid-19 pandemic can impose difficult allocation decisions when demand for mechanical ventilation or intensive care beds greatly exceeds available resources. Triage criteria should be objective, ethical, transparent, applied equitably and publically disclosed. The aim of this review is to describe the triage tools and process for critical care resources in a pandemic health emergency. METHODS: A narrative review was conducted of the literature on five electronic databases, namely PubMed, CINHAL, Web of Science, Cochrane and Embase, searching for studies published from 2006 to June 2020. RESULTS: The results describe different triage tools. A gold standard of triage does not exist for the adult or paediatric population. Using probability of short-term survival as the sole allocation principle is problematic. In general, each triage protocol should be applied with a specific ethical justification, including transparency, duty to care, duty to steward resources, duty to plan, and distributive justice. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical triage decisions based on clinical judgment alone are prone to inconsistent application by triage officers in a pandemic. An ethical framework can inform decision-making and improve accountability. It remains difficult to connect clinical criteria and ethical criteria, because of the models on offer for health services.

The principle of salvage in the context of COVID-19.

The prioritisation of scarce resources has a particular urgency within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This paper sets out a hypothetical case of Patient X (who is a nurse) and Patient Y (who is a non-health care worker). They are both in need of a ventilator due to COVID-19 with the same clinical situation and expected outcomes. However, there is only one ventilator available. In addressing the question of who should get priority, the proposal is made that the answer may lie in how the pandemic is metaphorically described using military terms. If nursing is understood to take place at the 'frontline' in the 'battle' against COVID-19, a principle of military medical ethics-namely the principle of salvage-can offer guidance on how to prioritise access to a life-saving resource in such a situation. This principle of salvage purports a moral direction to return wounded soldiers back to duty on the battlefield. Applying this principle to the hypothetical case, this paper proposes that Patient X (who is a nurse) should get priority of access to the ventilator so that he/she can return to the 'frontline' in the fight against COVID-19.

Hospital Nursing Staff Perceptions of Resources Provided by Their Organizations During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has profoundly impacted the health and psychological well-being of hospital nursing staff. While additional support is needed to better cope with increased job stressors, little is known about what types of hospital resources have been provided and how nursing staff perceive them. This study addressed this gap by describing nursing staff perceptions of resources provided by hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. METHODS: Registered nurses and nursing assistants who were working in hospitals during the pandemic were recruited to an online survey via social media posts and emails between May and June 2020. A total of 360 free-text responses to an open-ended survey question were analyzed using content analysis. RESULTS: Over half of participants reported being provided with hospital resources. "Basic needs" resources that included food on-site, groceries, and childcare support were the most frequently reported compared with four other types of resources (personal health and safe practice, financial support, managerial support, communication). Four themes emerged related to staff perceptions of support: community support, unequal benefits, decreasing resources, and insufficient personal protective equipment. CONCLUSION: Our findings can assist organizational leaders in the planning and allocation of different types of resources that are meaningful to nursing staff and thus ensure sustainability, optimal performance, and worker well-being during crises.

Recommendations from the Canadian Association of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology for the Management of Head and Neck Cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID19) pandemic has placed extreme pressures on the Canadian Healthcare system. Many health care regions in Canada have cancelled or limited surgical and non-surgical interventions on patients to preserve healthcare resources for a predicted increase in COVID19 related hospital admissions. Also reduced health interventions may limit the risk of possible transmission of COVID19 to other patients and health care workers during this pandemic. The majority of institutions in Canada have developed their own operational mandates regarding access to surgical resources for patients suffering from Head and Neck Cancers during this pandemic. There is a large degree of individual practitioner judgement in deciding access to care as well as resource allocation during these challenging times. The Canadian Association of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology (CAHNSO) convened a task force to develop a set of guidelines based on the best current available evidence to help Head and Neck Surgical Oncologists and all practitioners involved in the care of these patients to help guide individual practice decisions. MAIN BODY: The majority of head and neck surgical oncology from initial diagnosis and work up to surgical treatment and then follow-up involves aerosol generating medical procedures (AGMPs) which inherently put head and neck surgeons and practitioners at high risk for transmission of COVID19. The aggressive nature of the majority of head and neck cancer negates the ability for deferring surgical treatment for a prolonged period of time. The included guidelines provide recommendations for resource allocation for patients, use of personal protective equipment for practitioners as well as recommendations for modification of practice during the current pandemic. CONCLUSION: 1. Enhanced triaging should be used to identify patients with aggressive malignancies. These patients should be prioritized to reduce risk of significant disease progression in the reduced resource environment of COVID19 era. 2. Enhanced triaging including aggressive pre-treatment COVID19 testing should be used to identify patients with high risk of COVID19 transmission. 3. Enhanced personal protective equipment (PPE) including N95 masks and full eye protection should be used for any AGMPs performed even in asymptomatic patients. 4. Enhanced PPE including full eye protection, N95 masks and/or powered air purifying respirators (PAPRs) should be used for any AGMPs in symptomatic or presumptive positive COVID 19 patients.

CLINICAL DECISION MAKING IN OLDER ADULTS WITH COVID-19 IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: LOOKING BEYOND CHRONOLOGICAL AGE.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared a global pandemic. Older adults have been found as a vulnerable group for developing severe forms of disease and increased mortality. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to propose a pathway to assist the decision-making process for hospital resource allocation for older adults with COVID-19 using simple geriatric assessment-based tools. METHODS: We reviewed the available literature at this point of the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing in older adult care to extract key recommendations for those health-care professionals who will be treating older adults in the hospital emergency ward (HEW) in developing countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: We listed a series of easy recommendations for non-geriatrician doctors in the HEW and suggested simple tools for hospital resource allocation during critical care evaluation of older adults with COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Age must not be used as the sole criterion for resource allocation among older adults with COVID-19. Simple and efficient tools are available to identify components of the comprehensive geriatric assessment, which could be useful to predict outcomes and provide high-quality care that would fit the particular needs of older adults in resource-limited settings amidst this global pandemic.

[Ethical recommendations for a difficult decision-making in intensive care units due to the exceptional situation of crisis by the COVID-19 pandemia: A rapid review & consensus of experts]. / Recomendaciones éticas para la toma de decisiones difíciles en las unidades de cuidados intensivos ante la situación excepcional de crisis por la pandemia por COVID-19: revisión rápida y consenso de expertos.

In view of the exceptional public health situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, a consensus work has been promoted from the ethics group of the Spanish Society of Intensive, Critical Medicine and Coronary Units (SEMICYUC), with the objective of finding some answers from ethics to the crossroads between the increase of people with intensive care needs and the effective availability of means.In a very short period, the medical practice framework has been changed to a 'catastrophe medicine' scenario, with the consequent change in the decision-making parameters. In this context, the allocation of resources or the prioritization of treatment become crucial elements, and it is important to have an ethical reference framework to be able to make the necessary clinical decisions. For this, a process of narrative review of the evidence has been carried out, followed by a unsystematic consensus of experts, which has resulted in both the publication of a position paper and recommendations from SEMICYUC itself, and the consensus between 18 scientific societies and 5 institutes/chairs of bioethics and palliative care of a framework document of reference for general ethical recommendations in this context of crisis.

A Practical Approach to the Management of Cancer Patients During the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: An International Collaborative Group.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread globally since being identified as a public health emergency of major international concern and has now been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). In December 2019, an outbreak of atypical pneumonia, known as COVID-19, was identified in Wuhan, China. The newly identified zoonotic coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is characterized by rapid human-to-human transmission. Many cancer patients frequently visit the hospital for treatment and disease surveillance. They may be immunocompromised due to the underlying malignancy or anticancer therapy and are at higher risk of developing infections. Several factors increase the risk of infection, and cancer patients commonly have multiple risk factors. Cancer patients appear to have an estimated twofold increased risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 than the general population. With the WHO declaring the novel coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, there is an urgent need to address the impact of such a pandemic on cancer patients. This include changes to resource allocation, clinical care, and the consent process during a pandemic. Currently and due to limited data, there are no international guidelines to address the management of cancer patients in any infectious pandemic. In this review, the potential challenges associated with managing cancer patients during the COVID-19 infection pandemic will be addressed, with suggestions of some practical approaches. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The main management strategies for treating cancer patients during the COVID-19 epidemic include clear communication and education about hand hygiene, infection control measures, high-risk exposure, and the signs and symptoms of COVID-19. Consideration of risk and benefit for active intervention in the cancer population must be individualized. Postponing elective surgery or adjuvant chemotherapy for cancer patients with low risk of progression should be considered on a case-by-case basis. Minimizing outpatient visits can help to mitigate exposure and possible further transmission. Telemedicine may be used to support patients to minimize number of visits and risk of exposure. More research is needed to better understand SARS-CoV-2 virology and epidemiology.